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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
M. Khalaj 43'
R. Jafari 60', 53', 27', 23' (pen)
2/18/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan36%
×Draw32%
Shams Azar Qazvin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.13

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.97

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
68%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Shams Azar Qazvin
68%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
64%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
13%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
62%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
25%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
7%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
59%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
22%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
53%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
36%
level
32%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
32%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
R. JafariPenalty
27'
R. Jafari
43'
M. Khalaj
53'
R. Jafari
60'
R. Jafari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Hamedan vs Shams Azar Qazvin

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Shahrdari Hamedan 4-1 in Azadegan League on February 18, 2023.

Goals: R. Jafari (23' pen, 27', 53', 60'), M. Khalaj (43').

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.