Shams Azar Qazvin 5–0 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Shams Azar Qazvin

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pars Jonoubi JAM

R. Jafari 65'

M. Papi 53'

P. Sarabadani 49' (pen)

A. A. Arabi 40'

H. Abarghouei 37'

9/7/2022

Azadegan League · Round 3Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin57%

×Draw24%

Pars Jonoubi JAM19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shams Azar QazvinExpected goals in this matchPars Jonoubi JAM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.84

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.66

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.84

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 98% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 100 away

2.20

creates per match

0.89

0.80

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

2.20

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.89

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.80

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw

81%

Shams Azar Qazvin or Pars Jonoubi JAM

76%

Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM

43%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

31%

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

81%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

49%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

23%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

57%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

21%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

75%

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

57%

level

24%

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

19%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

H. Abarghouei

40'

A. A. Arabi

49'

P. SarabadaniPenalty

53'

M. Papi

65'

R. Jafari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff