Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin

Pars Jonoubi JAM

FT

1 – 0

Shams Azar Qazvin

11/17/2021

Azadegan League · Round 6Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM40%

×Draw30%

Shams Azar Qazvin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pars Jonoubi JAMExpected goals in this matchShams Azar Qazvin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.95

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.13

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.95

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 19% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 30 away

1.28

creates per match

1.13

0.77

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.28

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.13

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.77

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw

70%

Pars Jonoubi JAM or Shams Azar Qazvin

70%

Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin

60%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

16%

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

68%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

31%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

11%

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

61%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

25%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

57%

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

40%

level

30%

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

30%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff