Shams Azar Qazvin 3–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak

Shams Azar Qazvin

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mes Shahr-e Babak

Reza Arvin 82'

A. A. Arabi 66'

P. Sarabadani 59'

3/10/2023

Azadegan League · Round 25Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin53%

×Draw27%

Mes Shahr-e Babak20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shams Azar QazvinExpected goals in this matchMes Shahr-e Babak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.80

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.47

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.80

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 84% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 85 away

2.20

creates per match

0.79

0.80

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

2.20

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.79

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.80

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Mes Shahr-e Babak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw

80%

Shams Azar Qazvin or Mes Shahr-e Babak

73%

Draw or Mes Shahr-e Babak

47%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

27%

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

77%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

43%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

18%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals

55%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals

19%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

72%

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 0.79 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

53%

level

27%

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more

20%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

P. Sarabadani

66'

A. A. Arabi

82'

Reza Arvin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff