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Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
P. Namvar 80'
K. Tahernejad 42'
10/11/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak40%
×Draw32%
Shams Azar Qazvin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.05
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.84

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 25% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.13
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.13

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.55
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.97

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw
71%
Mes Shahr-e Babak or Shams Azar Qazvin
68%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
60%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
16%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
65%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
28%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
9%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
57%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
21%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
58%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
40%
level
32%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
29%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
K. Tahernejad
80'
P. Namvar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Shahr-e Babak 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin

Mes Shahr-e Babak and Shams Azar Qazvin drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 11, 2022.

Goals: K. Tahernejad (42'), P. Namvar (80').

The match was played at Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium in Shahrbabak.