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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Machine Sazi FC — Azadegan League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
1 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
4/18/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin77%
×Draw15%
Machine Sazi FC8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.60
Machine Sazi FC
0.74

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 251% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 18 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.20
Machine Sazi FC
0.67

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.80
Machine Sazi FC
3.00

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
92%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Machine Sazi FC
85%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
23%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
55%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
92%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
73%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
47%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
52%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
17%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
90%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
77%
level
15%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
8%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Machine Sazi FC

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Machine Sazi FC 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.