Machine Sazi FC 2–2 Shams Azar Qazvin

Machine Sazi FC

FT

2 – 2

Shams Azar Qazvin

12/8/2021

Azadegan League · Round 9Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Machine Sazi FC23%

×Draw25%

Shams Azar Qazvin52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machine Sazi FCExpected goals in this matchShams Azar Qazvin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.59

Machine Sazi FC

0.95

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.59

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 67% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

0.94

creates per match

1.13

2.06

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC

0.94

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.13

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC

2.06

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw

48%

Machine Sazi FC or Shams Azar Qazvin

75%

Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin

77%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

8%

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

61%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

25%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

7%

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

80%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

47%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

30%

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.94 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Machine Sazi FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more

23%

level

25%

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

52%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff