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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
8/27/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin59%
×Draw24%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
1.68
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.79

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 113% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.20
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.80
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
83%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
76%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
41%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
33%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
81%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
50%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
24%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
55%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
19%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
77%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.68

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
59%
level
24%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
17%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shams Azar Qazvin 4–0 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 4-0 in Azadegan League on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.