Khooshe Talaee Saveh 0–1 Shams Azar Qazvin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

FT

0 – 1

Shams Azar Qazvin

12/2/2021

Azadegan League · Round 8Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh38%

×Draw30%

Shams Azar Qazvin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooshe Talaee SavehExpected goals in this matchShams Azar Qazvin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.96

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.08

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.96

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 13% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

1.20

creates per match

1.13

0.80

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.20

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.13

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.80

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw

68%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Shams Azar Qazvin

70%

Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin

62%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

15%

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

66%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

29%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

10%

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

62%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

25%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

54%

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 82 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

38%

level

30%

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

32%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff