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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
5/10/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin70%
×Draw20%
Khalij Fars11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.02
Khalij Fars
0.64

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 216% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.20
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.80
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
89%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Khalij Fars
80%
Draw or Khalij Fars
30%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
44%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
87%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
60%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
33%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
47%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
14%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
87%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.02

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
70%
level
20%
Khalij Fars scores more
11%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Khalij Fars

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Khalij Fars 2-1 in Azadegan League on May 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.