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Khalij Fars vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Azadegan League 2018

Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
12/19/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Shohada Mahshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khalij Fars29%
×Draw30%
Shams Azar Qazvin41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalij Fars
0.93
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.15

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 24% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

creates per match

Khalij Fars
0.88
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.13

allows per match

Khalij Fars
1.16
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.97

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw
59%
Khalij Fars or Shams Azar Qazvin
70%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
71%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+
10%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals
61%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
24%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
7%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
68%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
32%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
42%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 1.13 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khalij Fars scores more
29%
level
30%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
41%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khalij Fars vs Shams Azar Qazvin

Khalij Fars and Shams Azar Qazvin drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on December 19, 2022.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr in Mahshahr.