Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Shams Azar Qazvin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esteghlal Khuzestan

2/15/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 16Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin43%

×Draw29%

Esteghlal Khuzestan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shams Azar QazvinExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Khuzestan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.92

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.22

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.92

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 33% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 56 away

0.98

creates per match

0.63

1.21

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.98

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.63

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.21

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw

72%

Shams Azar Qazvin or Esteghlal Khuzestan

71%

Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan

57%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

19%

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

70%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

34%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

12%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

60%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

23%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

61%

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.98 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.22

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.63 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

43%

level

29%

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

28%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff