Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin

Esteghlal Khuzestan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shams Azar Qazvin

2/6/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 19Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan35%

×Draw32%

Shams Azar Qazvin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal KhuzestanExpected goals in this matchShams Azar Qazvin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.93

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.98

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 41 away

0.89

creates per match

0.78

1.07

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.89

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.78

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.07

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw

67%

Esteghlal Khuzestan or Shams Azar Qazvin

68%

Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin

65%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

13%

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

62%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

26%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

8%

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

61%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

24%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

52%

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.89 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.78 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

35%

level

32%

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

33%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff