Shams Azar Qazvin 1–3 Aluminium Arak

Shams Azar Qazvin

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Aluminium Arak

5/15/2025

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin35%

×Draw31%

Aluminium Arak33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shams Azar QazvinExpected goals in this matchAluminium Arak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.96

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.00

Aluminium Arak

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 86 away

0.98

creates per match

0.71

1.21

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

0.98

Aluminium Arak

0.71

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin

1.21

Aluminium Arak

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Aluminium Arak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw

67%

Shams Azar Qazvin or Aluminium Arak

69%

Draw or Aluminium Arak

65%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+

13%

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals

63%

Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals

26%

Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals

8%

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

62%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

25%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)

52%

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.98 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more

35%

level

31%

Aluminium Arak scores more

33%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff