Aluminium Arak vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 41+ matches
Aluminium Arak38%
Shams Azar Qazvin28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Aluminium Arak creates 23% more chances
Season form · 85 home / 41 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under74
- Over26
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No66
- Yes34
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Aluminium Arak ↓
Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches
Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97
Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.78 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Aluminium Arak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Persepolis FC
Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC
Padideh Khorasan
Tractor Sazi
ZOB Ahan
Saipa
Foolad FC
Sanat Naft
Nassaji Mazandaran
Paykan
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Machine Sazi FC
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Sepidrood Rasht
Esteghlal KhuzestanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Aluminium Arak host Shams Azar Qazvin on Friday, 3 October 2025 at 13:45. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Persian Gulf Pro League: Aluminium Arak 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin
Aluminium Arak beat Shams Azar Qazvin 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 3, 2025.
The match was played at Imam Khomeini in Arak.