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Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2026

Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
Preview
19:00
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
8/21/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 28Tallaght Stadium
Big match
43%
Shamrock Rovers
model favours
43%25%33%

Shelbourne are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shamrock Rovers43%
×Draw25%
Shelbourne33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers
1.57
Shelbourne
1.35

Shamrock Rovers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers
1.70
Shelbourne
1.39

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers
1.32
Shelbourne
1.45

finishing

Shamrock Rovers-0.10scores less
Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw
67%
Shamrock Rovers or Shelbourne
75%
Draw or Shelbourne
57%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
21%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
79%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
46%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
21%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
74%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
39%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
56%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.32 · 5 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.70 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Shamrock Rovers defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more
43%
level
25%
Shelbourne scores more
33%

Shamrock Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shamrock Rovers score first in only 28% of matches
  • Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 41%
  • Both teams score in 70% of Shelbourne’s matches
  • 44% of Shamrock Rovers’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 41% of Shelbourne’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Shamrock Rovers
Attack-heavy
Shelbourne
Attack-heavy
61%Possession56%
82%Pass accuracy80%
14.1Shots14.3
1.54xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shamrock RoversShelbourne

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
1–23–22–20–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rovers
LDWLW
Shelbourne
WDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shamrock Rovers face Shelbourne (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with Shamrock Rovers hosting Shelbourne. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shamrock Rovers host Shelbourne at Tallaght Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.