Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City — FAI Cup 2021
Cork City have scored in 11 games running
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Shamrock Rovers64%
Cork City16%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Shamrock Rovers creates 121% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shamrock Rovers ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches
Cork City away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shamrock Rovers attack 3.20 + Cork City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.10
Cork City attack 1.50 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
Shamrock Rovers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Shamrock Rovers score first in only 26% of matches
- 38% of Shamrock Rovers’s goals come after the 75th minute
- 24% of Cork City’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Shamrock Rovers host Cork City on Friday, 17 July 2026 at 18:45. The match is part of the FAI Cup 2021/2022 season.
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City — Match Preview
Shamrock Rovers face Cork City on July 17, 2026 in this FAI Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Shamrock Rovers host Cork City at Tallaght Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.