Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Cork City: Result & Stats

Shamrock Rovers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cork City

R. Gaffney 71', 65'

11/9/2025

FAI Cup · FinalAviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shamrock Rovers65%

×Draw21%

Cork City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shamrock RoversExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.79

Shamrock Rovers

1.95

Cork City

0.79

Shamrock Rovers creates 147% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.78

creates per match

1.25

0.33

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers

2.78

Cork City

1.25

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers

0.33

Cork City

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw

86%

Shamrock Rovers or Cork City

79%

Draw or Cork City

35%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

39%

Cork City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

86%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

58%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

31%

Cork City 1+ goals

55%

Cork City 2+ goals

19%

Cork City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

82%

Cork City (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 2.78 + Cork City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.95

Cork City attack 1.25 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more

65%

level

21%

Cork City scores more

14%

Shamrock Rovers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

46'

65'

70'

70'

K. Kamara← F. Kelleher

71'

R. Gaffney

78'

D. Mandroiu← D. Watts

78'

J. McGovern← R. Gaffney

83'

C. Malley←

87'

S. Kavanagh← G. Burke

88'

L. Grace← J. Honohan

Shamrock

Cork

13

Brann

8

McLaughli

17

Crowley

4

▼

2

28

23

6

▼

Bolger

10

▼

24

20

1

4

6

2

▼

Honohan

7

▼

27

17

8

21

20

⚽2

▼

Gaffney

10

▼

Burke

Manager: Stephen Bradley

78'▲D. Mandroiu←▼D. Watts

78'▲J. McGovern←▼R. Gaffney

83'▲C. Malley←▼—

87'▲S. Kavanagh←▼G. Burke

88'▲L. Grace←▼J. Honohan

Shamrock Rovers substitutes

25Steacy3Matthews5Grace11Kavanagh14Mandroiu15Nugent22Barrett23Malley88McGovern

Manager: Gerard Nash

46'▲C. Drinan←▼A. Nolan

70'▲M. Murray←▼G. Bolger

70'▲K. Kamara←▼F. Kelleher

Cork City substitutes

1Odumosu5Lyons9Keating14Nelson15Drinan16Murray19Kiernan25Murray31Kamara

FAI Cup: Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Cork City

Shamrock Rovers beat Cork City 2-0 in FAI Cup on November 9, 2025.

Goals: R. Gaffney (65', 71').

The match was played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin.

Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City — FAI Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FAI Cup: Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Cork City