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Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City — Premier Division 2019

Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cork City
Cork City
4/14/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 2Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Shamrock Rovers67%
×Draw20%
Cork City12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shamrock Rovers
2.01
Cork City
0.72

Shamrock Rovers creates 179% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 63 away

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers
1.98
Cork City
0.73

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers
0.71
Cork City
2.05

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw
88%
Shamrock Rovers or Cork City
80%
Draw or Cork City
33%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
42%
Cork City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
87%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
59%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
32%
Cork City 1+ goals
51%
Cork City 2+ goals
16%
Cork City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
84%
Cork City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.71 · 129 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.98 + Cork City defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.01

Cork City attack 0.73 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more
67%
level
20%
Cork City scores more
12%

Shamrock Rovers at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City

Shamrock Rovers beat Cork City 4-1 in Premier Division on April 14, 2025.

The match was played at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin.