Shamrock Rovers 4–4 Cork City: Result & Stats

Shamrock Rovers

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Cork City

S. Hoare 90+7'

S. Power 84'

L. Grace 53'

R. Gaffney 14'

D. Crowley 69', 38'

K. Čustović 58'

R. Keating 34'

3/6/2023

Premier Division · Round 4Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Shamrock Rovers68%

×Draw20%

Cork City12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shamrock RoversExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.72

Shamrock Rovers

2.02

Cork City

0.72

Shamrock Rovers creates 181% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 60 away

1.97

creates per match

0.73

0.71

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers

1.97

Cork City

0.73

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers

0.71

Cork City

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw

88%

Shamrock Rovers or Cork City

80%

Draw or Cork City

32%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

42%

Cork City wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

87%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

60%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

33%

Cork City 1+ goals

51%

Cork City 2+ goals

16%

Cork City 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

85%

Cork City (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.71 · 127 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.97 + Cork City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.02

Cork City attack 0.73 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more

68%

level

20%

Cork City scores more

12%

Shamrock Rovers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Gaffney

21'

D. Crowley

34'

R. Keating↳ C. Bargary

35'

G. Walker

38'

K. Čustović← G. Walker

38'

D. Crowley

41'

K. Custovic

46'

N. Farrugia← D. Nugent

53'

L. Grace↳ J. Byrne

57'

G. Burke← M. Poom

58'

K. Čustović↳ A. Gilchrist

64'

S. Power← J. Kenny

64'

E. Varian← D. Krezic

69'

D. Crowley↳ E. Varian

72'

R. Towell← D. Watts

73'

S. Hoare← G. ONeill

84'

S. Power

89'

J. Häkkinen← K. Čustović

90+3'

A. Winbo← A. Bolger

90+7'

S. Hoare↳ L. Grace

Shamrock

Cork

20

Corcoran

6

A

Gilchrist

4

Coleman

2

▼

Walker

18

Honohan

8

▼

Bolger

5

Healy

9

⚽

Keating

16

▼

Krezic

17

⚽2

Crowley

11

A

Bargary

1

Mannus

6

Cleary

5

⚽A

Grace

29

A

Byrne

16

▼

O'Neill

18

Clarke

7

▼

Watts

19

▼

Poom

15

▼

Nugent

20

⚽

Gaffney

24

▼

Kenny

Manager: S. Bradley

46'▲N. Farrugia←▼D. Nugent

57'▲G. Burke←▼M. Poom

64'▲S. Power←▼J. Kenny

72'▲R. Towell←▼D. Watts

73'▲S. Hoare←▼G. ONeill

Shamrock Rovers substitutes

23Farrugia10Burke14Power17Towell3Hoare2Gannon11Kavanagh27Burt25Pöhls

Manager: C. Healy

38'▲K. Čustović←▼G. Walker

64'▲E. Varian←▼D. Krezic

89'▲J. Häkkinen←▼K. Čustović

90+3'▲A. Winbo←▼A. Bolger

Cork City substitutes

27Čustović21Varian28Häkkinen14Winbo7Owolabi30O'Brien-Whitmarsh24Murphy26Mannix22O'Donovan