Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Shamrock Rovers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bohemians

G. Burke 44' (pen), 5'

C. Whelan 80' (pen)

4/17/2026

Premier Division · Round 12Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shamrock Rovers36%

×Draw24%

Bohemians40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shamrock RoversExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.58

Shamrock Rovers

1.50

Bohemians

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.70

creates per match

1.84

1.32

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers

1.70

Bohemians

1.84

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers

1.32

Bohemians

1.29

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Shamrock Rovers-0.10scores less

Bohemians+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers or draw

60%

Shamrock Rovers or Bohemians

76%

Draw or Bohemians

64%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Bohemians wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

78%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Bohemians 1+ goals

79%

Bohemians 2+ goals

47%

Bohemians 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

48%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.32 · 5 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.70 + Bohemians defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bohemians attack 1.84 + Shamrock Rovers defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shamrock Rovers scores more

36%

level

24%

Bohemians scores more

40%

Bohemians at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. McGinty

Shamrock Rovers · G

8.3

Match Events

5'

G. Burke

43'

Dawson Devoy

44'

G. BurkePenalty

59'

C. Whelan← D. James-Taylor

59'

M. Strods← Z. Myers

64'

A. Greene← G. Burke

64'

A. Brennan← J. Mulraney

70'

S. Diallo← J. Flores

70'

C. Parsons← D. Rooney

73'

J. McGovern← M. Noonan

74'

N. Razi← J. Byrne

76'

John McGovern

77'

L. Kavanagh← R. Tierney

80'

C. WhelanPenalty

88'

E. Stevens← V. Ozhianvuna

90+3'

Adam Brennan

90+1'

Naj Razi

90'

Edward McGinty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShamrockBohemians

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots23

1.60Expected Goals (xG)2.87

5Corners11

17Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots23

5On Target6

3Off Target7

4Blocked10

9Inside Box23

3Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

383Total Passes389

300Accurate Passes304

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1