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Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers — Premier Division 2026

Bohemians
Bohemians
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
R. Tierney 87'
C. Whelan 56' (pen)
C. Parsons 26'
R. Lopes 90'
A. Greene 90'
2/27/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 4Dalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bohemians37%
×Draw30%
Shamrock Rovers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians
1.11
Shamrock Rovers
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bohemians
1.25
Shamrock Rovers
1.41

allows per match

Bohemians
0.66
Shamrock Rovers
0.98

finishing

Bohemians-0.25scores less
Shamrock Rovers-0.41scores less

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

Shamrock Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw
67%
Bohemians or Shamrock Rovers
70%
Draw or Shamrock Rovers
63%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+
15%
Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals
67%
Bohemians 2+ goals
30%
Bohemians 3+ goals
10%
Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals
64%
Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
28%
Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)
53%
Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 6 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 1.25 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.41 + Bohemians defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bohemians scores more
37%
level
30%
Shamrock Rovers scores more
33%

Bohemians at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
R. TierneyBohemiansBohemians · M
8.5

Match Events

6'
Dawson Devoy
26'
C. Parsons↳ C. Whelan
33'
Adam Brennan
48'
Roberto Lopes
55'
Dan Cleary
56'
C. WhelanPenalty
65'
J. Byrne← D. Watts
65'
J. Mulraney← D. Grant
65'
T. Sobowale← D. Cleary
73'
J. McGovern← V. Ozhianvuna
75'
Patrick Hickey
75'
John McGovern
79'
A. Greene← M. Noonan
84'
C. Byrne← C. Parsons
87'
R. Tierney
90+4'
H. Martin← R. Tierney
90+4'
H. Vaughan← C. Whelan
90'
R. Lopes↳ J. Byrne
90'
A. Greene↳ T. Sobowale

Possession

42%Bohemians

Shots

10Bohemians

Pass accuracy

50%Bohemians

Statistics

BohemiansShamrock
Overview
42%Possession58%
10Total Shots10
6Corners7
13Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots10
4On Target4
2Off Target5
4Blocked1
10Inside Box9
0Outside Box1
Passing
42%Possession58%
303Total Passes421
220Accurate Passes310
73%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Premier Division: Bohemians 3–2 Shamrock Rovers

Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 3-2 in Premier Division on February 27, 2026.

Goals: C. Parsons (26'), C. Whelan (56' pen), R. Tierney (87'), R. Lopes (90'), A. Greene (90').

Shamrock Rovers controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Dalymount Park in Dublin.