Shamrock Rovers II 1–2 Longford Town

Shamrock Rovers II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Longford Town

9/4/2020

First Division · Round 10Tallaght Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shamrock Rovers II35%

×Draw25%

Longford Town40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shamrock Rovers IIExpected goals in this matchLongford Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.50

Shamrock Rovers II

1.39

Longford Town

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 109 away

1.22

creates per match

1.22

1.78

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Shamrock Rovers II

1.22

Longford Town

1.22

allows per match

Shamrock Rovers II

1.78

Longford Town

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shamrock Rovers II+0.00on par

Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shamrock Rovers II ↓

Longford Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shamrock Rovers II or draw

60%

Shamrock Rovers II or Longford Town

75%

Draw or Longford Town

65%

Winning margin

Shamrock Rovers II wins by 2+

16%

Longford Town wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shamrock Rovers II 1+ goals

75%

Shamrock Rovers II 2+ goals

40%

Shamrock Rovers II 3+ goals

16%

Longford Town 1+ goals

78%

Longford Town 2+ goals

44%

Longford Town 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Shamrock Rovers II (draw refunded)

47%

Longford Town (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shamrock Rovers II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Longford Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shamrock Rovers II attack 1.22 + Longford Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Longford Town attack 1.22 + Shamrock Rovers II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shamrock Rovers II scores more

35%

level

25%

Longford Town scores more

40%

Longford Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Longford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff