Longford Town 2–0 Shamrock Rovers II

Longford Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shamrock Rovers II

2/22/2020

First Division · Round 1Bishopsgate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Longford Town40%

×Draw27%

Shamrock Rovers II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Longford TownExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Longford Town

1.33

Shamrock Rovers II

1.17

Longford Town creates 14% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.11

1.23

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Longford Town

1.33

Shamrock Rovers II

1.11

allows per match

Longford Town

1.23

Shamrock Rovers II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Longford Town+0.00on par

Shamrock Rovers II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longford Town ↓

Shamrock Rovers II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Longford Town or draw

67%

Longford Town or Shamrock Rovers II

73%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers II

60%

Winning margin

Longford Town wins by 2+

18%

Shamrock Rovers II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Longford Town 1+ goals

74%

Longford Town 2+ goals

38%

Longford Town 3+ goals

15%

Shamrock Rovers II 1+ goals

69%

Shamrock Rovers II 2+ goals

33%

Shamrock Rovers II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Longford Town (draw refunded)

55%

Shamrock Rovers II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longford Town at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Shamrock Rovers II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longford Town attack 1.33 + Shamrock Rovers II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Shamrock Rovers II attack 1.11 + Longford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Longford Town scores more

40%

level

27%

Shamrock Rovers II scores more

33%

Longford Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Longford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff