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Shakhtyor Petrikov vs Ostrovets FC — 1. Division 2018

Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
5/8/20231. Division1. Division · Round 6Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov36%
×Draw23%
Ostrovets FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.54
Ostrovets FC
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 69 away

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.48
Ostrovets FC
1.58

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.59

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par
Ostrovets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Ostrovets FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw
59%
Shakhtyor Petrikov or Ostrovets FC
77%
Draw or Ostrovets FC
64%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
17%
Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
79%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
45%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
20%
Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
81%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
49%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
47%
Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Ostrovets FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ostrovets FC attack 1.58 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
36%
level
23%
Ostrovets FC scores more
41%

Ostrovets FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ostrovets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Shakhtyor Petrikov 2–4 Ostrovets FC

Ostrovets FC beat Shakhtyor Petrikov 4-2 in 1. Division on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen FOK Prypiać in Petryków.