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Ostrovets FC vs Shakhtyor Petrikov — 1. Division 2018

Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
9/17/20221. Division1. Division · Round 19Stadyen ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Ostrovets FC39%
×Draw24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrovets FC
1.59
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 62 away

creates per match

Ostrovets FC
1.50
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.53

allows per match

Ostrovets FC
1.60
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.68

finishing

Ostrovets FC+0.00on par
Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrovets FC ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ostrovets FC or draw
62%
Ostrovets FC or Shakhtyor Petrikov
76%
Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov
61%

Winning margin

Ostrovets FC wins by 2+
19%
Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ostrovets FC 1+ goals
80%
Ostrovets FC 2+ goals
47%
Ostrovets FC 3+ goals
21%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
79%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
46%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ostrovets FC (draw refunded)
51%
Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrovets FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrovets FC attack 1.50 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Ostrovets FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ostrovets FC scores more
39%
level
24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
38%

Ostrovets FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ostrovets FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostrovets FC vs Shakhtyor Petrikov

Shakhtyor Petrikov beat Ostrovets FC 4-0 in 1. Division on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen ASK in Astravets.