Shakhtyor Petrikov 1–1 Osipovichy: Result & Stats

Shakhtyor Petrikov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Osipovichy

5/28/2023

1. Division · Round 9Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov52%

×Draw22%

Osipovichy27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtyor PetrikovExpected goals in this matchOsipovichy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.40

Shakhtyor Petrikov

2.02

Osipovichy

1.40

Shakhtyor Petrikov creates 44% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 51 away

1.48

creates per match

1.08

1.72

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.48

Osipovichy

1.08

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.72

Osipovichy

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Osipovichy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Osipovichy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw

73%

Shakhtyor Petrikov or Osipovichy

78%

Draw or Osipovichy

48%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

30%

Osipovichy wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

87%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

60%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

33%

Osipovichy 1+ goals

75%

Osipovichy 2+ goals

41%

Osipovichy 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

66%

Osipovichy (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Osipovichy away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Osipovichy defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.02

Osipovichy attack 1.08 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

52%

level

22%

Osipovichy scores more

27%

Shakhtyor Petrikov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shakhtyor Petrikov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff