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Osipovichy vs Shakhtyor Petrikov — 1. Division 2018

Osipovichy
Osipovichy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
9/30/20231. Division1. Division · Round 26Stadyen Junatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Osipovichy23%
×Draw22%
Shakhtyor Petrikov55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osipovichy
1.23
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.00

Shakhtyor Petrikov creates 63% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 62 away

creates per match

Osipovichy
0.77
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.53

allows per match

Osipovichy
2.47
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.68

finishing

Osipovichy+0.00on par
Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osipovichy ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Osipovichy or draw
45%
Osipovichy or Shakhtyor Petrikov
78%
Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov
77%

Winning margin

Osipovichy wins by 2+
9%
Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Osipovichy 1+ goals
71%
Osipovichy 2+ goals
35%
Osipovichy 3+ goals
13%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
86%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
59%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Osipovichy (draw refunded)
30%
Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osipovichy at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.47 · 53 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osipovichy attack 0.77 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Osipovichy defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Osipovichy scores more
23%
level
22%
Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
55%

Shakhtyor Petrikov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shakhtyor Petrikov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osipovichy vs Shakhtyor Petrikov

Shakhtyor Petrikov beat Osipovichy 1-0 in 1. Division on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Junatstva in Osipovichy.