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Shakhtyor Petrikov vs NFK Minsk — 1. Division 2018

Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
NFK Minsk
NFK Minsk
11/27/20211. Division1. Division · Round 33Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov30%
×Draw24%
NFK Minsk46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.29
NFK Minsk
1.65

NFK Minsk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 43 away

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.48
NFK Minsk
1.58

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.72
NFK Minsk
1.09

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par
NFK Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

NFK Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw
54%
Shakhtyor Petrikov or NFK Minsk
76%
Draw or NFK Minsk
70%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
13%
NFK Minsk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
72%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
37%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
14%
NFK Minsk 1+ goals
81%
NFK Minsk 2+ goals
49%
NFK Minsk 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
40%
NFK Minsk (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

NFK Minsk away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + NFK Minsk defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

NFK Minsk attack 1.58 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
30%
level
24%
NFK Minsk scores more
46%

NFK Minsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "NFK Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Shakhtyor Petrikov 2–3 NFK Minsk

NFK Minsk beat Shakhtyor Petrikov 3-2 in 1. Division on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen FOK Prypiać in Petryków.