Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

NFK Minsk vs Shakhtyor Petrikov — 1. Division 2018

NFK Minsk
NFK Minsk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
9/12/20211. Division1. Division · Round 22SOK Olympijskij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

NFK Minsk46%
×Draw24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NFK Minsk
1.71
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.33

NFK Minsk creates 29% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 62 away

creates per match

NFK Minsk
1.75
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.53

allows per match

NFK Minsk
1.14
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.68

finishing

NFK Minsk+0.00on par
Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NFK Minsk ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NFK Minsk or draw
70%
NFK Minsk or Shakhtyor Petrikov
76%
Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov
54%

Winning margin

NFK Minsk wins by 2+
25%
Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

NFK Minsk 1+ goals
82%
NFK Minsk 2+ goals
51%
NFK Minsk 3+ goals
24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
74%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
38%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

NFK Minsk (draw refunded)
61%
Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NFK Minsk at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NFK Minsk attack 1.75 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + NFK Minsk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NFK Minsk scores more
46%
level
24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
30%

NFK Minsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "NFK Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: NFK Minsk 3–2 Shakhtyor Petrikov

NFK Minsk beat Shakhtyor Petrikov 3-2 in 1. Division on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at SOK Olympijskij in Minsk.