Shakhtyor Petrikov 2–1 Lokomotiv Gomel

Shakhtyor Petrikov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotiv Gomel

9/1/2024

1. Division · Round 22Stadyen Shakhtsyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov34%

×Draw24%

Lokomotiv Gomel42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtyor PetrikovExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Gomel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.56

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.39

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.56

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 12% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 121 away

1.48

creates per match

1.40

1.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.48

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.40

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.72

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw

58%

Shakhtyor Petrikov or Lokomotiv Gomel

76%

Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel

66%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

15%

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

75%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

40%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

16%

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

46%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

45%

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.40 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

34%

level

24%

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

42%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff