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Lokomotiv Gomel vs Shakhtyor Petrikov — 1. Division 2018

Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
10/23/20221. Division1. Division · Round 23Stadyen Lakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel50%
×Draw23%
Shakhtyor Petrikov27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Gomel
1.84
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.30

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 42% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 62 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel
2.00
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.53

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel
1.07
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.68

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par
Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw
73%
Lokomotiv Gomel or Shakhtyor Petrikov
77%
Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov
50%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+
28%
Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals
55%
Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals
28%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
73%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
37%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)
65%
Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 120 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 2.00 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more
50%
level
23%
Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
27%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Lokomotiv Gomel 0–0 Shakhtyor Petrikov

Lokomotiv Gomel and Shakhtyor Petrikov drew 0-0 in 1. Division on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen Lakamatyu in Gomel.