Shakhtyor Petrikov 1–2 Dinamo Minsk II

Shakhtyor Petrikov

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Minsk II

5/10/2024

1. Division · Round 6Stadyen Shakhtsyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov34%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Minsk II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtyor PetrikovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Minsk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.56

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.39

Dinamo Minsk II

1.56

Dinamo Minsk II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 41 away

1.48

creates per match

1.41

1.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.48

Dinamo Minsk II

1.41

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.72

Dinamo Minsk II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Dinamo Minsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Dinamo Minsk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw

58%

Shakhtyor Petrikov or Dinamo Minsk II

76%

Draw or Dinamo Minsk II

66%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

15%

Dinamo Minsk II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

75%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

40%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Minsk II 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Minsk II 2+ goals

46%

Dinamo Minsk II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

45%

Dinamo Minsk II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Dinamo Minsk II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Dinamo Minsk II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dinamo Minsk II attack 1.41 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

34%

level

24%

Dinamo Minsk II scores more

42%

Dinamo Minsk II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff