Dinamo Minsk II 0–1 Shakhtyor Petrikov

Dinamo Minsk II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shakhtyor Petrikov

9/6/2024

1. Division · Round 23Stadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dinamo Minsk II43%

×Draw25%

Shakhtyor Petrikov33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Minsk IIExpected goals in this matchShakhtyor Petrikov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.33

Dinamo Minsk II

1.56

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.33

Dinamo Minsk II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 62 away

1.44

creates per match

1.53

1.12

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk II

1.44

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.53

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk II

1.12

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Minsk II+0.00on par

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk II ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk II or draw

67%

Dinamo Minsk II or Shakhtyor Petrikov

75%

Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov

57%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk II wins by 2+

21%

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk II 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Minsk II 2+ goals

46%

Dinamo Minsk II 3+ goals

21%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

74%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

38%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk II (draw refunded)

57%

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk II at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk II attack 1.44 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Dinamo Minsk II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Minsk II scores more

43%

level

25%

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

33%

Dinamo Minsk II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Minsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff