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Shakhtyor Petrikov vs Baranovichi — 1. Division 2018

Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
8/21/20231. Division1. Division · Round 20Stadyen FOK Prypiać

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov45%
×Draw24%
Baranovichi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.70
Baranovichi
1.39

Shakhtyor Petrikov creates 22% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 111 away

creates per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.48
Baranovichi
1.05

allows per match

Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.72
Baranovichi
1.92

finishing

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par
Baranovichi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtyor Petrikov ↓

Baranovichi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shakhtyor Petrikov or draw
68%
Shakhtyor Petrikov or Baranovichi
76%
Draw or Baranovichi
55%

Winning margin

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
24%
Baranovichi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
82%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
51%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
24%
Baranovichi 1+ goals
75%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
40%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
59%
Baranovichi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtyor Petrikov at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 61 matches

Baranovichi away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.92 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.48 + Baranovichi defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.70

Baranovichi attack 1.05 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
45%
level
24%
Baranovichi scores more
32%

Shakhtyor Petrikov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shakhtyor Petrikov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Shakhtyor Petrikov 1–1 Baranovichi

Shakhtyor Petrikov and Baranovichi drew 1-1 in 1. Division on August 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen FOK Prypiać in Petryków.