Baranovichi 0–1 Shakhtyor Petrikov: Result & Stats

Baranovichi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhtyor Petrikov

7/31/2024

1. Division · Round 17Stadyen Lyakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Baranovichi32%

×Draw23%

Shakhtyor Petrikov44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaranovichiExpected goals in this matchShakhtyor Petrikov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.73

Baranovichi

1.45

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.73

Shakhtyor Petrikov creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

1.22

creates per match

1.53

1.94

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Baranovichi

1.22

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.53

allows per match

Baranovichi

1.94

Shakhtyor Petrikov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par

Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw

56%

Baranovichi or Shakhtyor Petrikov

77%

Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov

68%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+

15%

Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals

77%

Baranovichi 2+ goals

42%

Baranovichi 3+ goals

18%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals

82%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals

52%

Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)

42%

Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.94 · 110 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.22 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Baranovichi defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baranovichi scores more

32%

level

23%

Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more

44%

Shakhtyor Petrikov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shakhtyor Petrikov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff