Shakhter Soligorsk 1–1 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats

Shakhter Soligorsk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ruh Brest

6/21/2020

Premier League · Round 14Stadyen Budaŭnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk42%

×Draw25%

Ruh Brest33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter SoligorskExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.29

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.49

Ruh Brest

1.29

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 29 away

1.81

creates per match

1.76

0.82

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.81

Ruh Brest

1.76

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk

0.82

Ruh Brest

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

Ruh Brest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw

67%

Shakhter Soligorsk or Ruh Brest

75%

Draw or Ruh Brest

58%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+

20%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals

77%

Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals

44%

Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals

19%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

72%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

37%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)

56%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.82 · 103 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.81 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more

42%

level

25%

Ruh Brest scores more

33%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff