Ruh Brest 1–2 Shakhter Soligorsk: Result & Stats

Ruh Brest

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Shakhter Soligorsk

11/22/2020

Premier League · Round 29Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ruh Brest38%

×Draw26%

Shakhter Soligorsk36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruh BrestExpected goals in this matchShakhter Soligorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.29

Ruh Brest

1.35

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 104 away

1.83

creates per match

1.52

1.07

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Ruh Brest

1.83

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.52

allows per match

Ruh Brest

1.07

Shakhter Soligorsk

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw

64%

Ruh Brest or Shakhter Soligorsk

74%

Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk

62%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

17%

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

74%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

39%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

15%

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals

72%

Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals

37%

Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

52%

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 1.83 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.52 + Ruh Brest defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ruh Brest scores more

38%

level

26%

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more

36%

Ruh Brest at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff