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Shakhter Soligorsk vs Neman — Premier League 2018

Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Neman
Neman
É. Placca 62', 11'
M. Kravtsov 84'
S. Karpovich 63'
P. Savitskiy 58' (pen)
N. Baranok 30' (OG)
G. Alykulov 13'
9/27/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stadyen Budaŭnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk47%
×Draw26%
Neman27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Neman
1.08

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 39% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 125 away

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.81
Neman
1.35

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
0.82
Neman
1.18

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par
Neman+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

Neman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw
73%
Shakhter Soligorsk or Neman
74%
Draw or Neman
53%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
23%
Neman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
78%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
44%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
19%
Neman 1+ goals
66%
Neman 2+ goals
29%
Neman 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
63%
Neman (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.82 · 103 matches

Neman away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.81 + Neman defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Neman attack 1.35 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
47%
level
26%
Neman scores more
27%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
É. Placca
13'
G. Alykulov
30'
N. BaranokOwn goal
58'
P. SavitskiyPenalty
59'
M. Kravtsov← I. Sadovnichiy
62'
É. Placca
63'
S. Karpovich
64'
M. Skavysh← M. Kovalevich
71'
N. Nikolaevich← N. Korzun
77'
Y. Pavlyukovets← A. Shukurov
80'
R. Paparyga← G. Alykulov
82'
A. Yakimov← P. Savitskiy
84'
M. Kravtsov
86'
A. Suchkov← O. Evdokimov
87'
D. Kovalevich← É. Placca

Statistics

ShakhterNeman
Overview
1Corners9

Premier League: Shakhter Soligorsk 2–5 Neman

Neman beat Shakhter Soligorsk 5-2 in Premier League on September 27, 2023.

Goals: É. Placca (11', 62'), G. Alykulov (13'), N. Baranok (30' o.g.), P. Savitskiy (58' pen), S. Karpovich (63'), M. Kravtsov (84').

The match was played at Stadyen Budaŭnik in Soligorsk.