Neman 1–0 Shakhter Soligorsk: Result & Stats

Neman

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhter Soligorsk

E. Zubovich 65'

5/2/2024

Premier League · Round 7Stadion Neman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Neman33%

×Draw29%

Shakhter Soligorsk38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NemanExpected goals in this matchShakhter Soligorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.18

Neman

1.09

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 104 away

1.30

creates per match

1.52

0.84

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Neman

1.30

Shakhter Soligorsk

1.52

allows per match

Neman

0.84

Shakhter Soligorsk

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neman+0.00on par

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Neman or draw

62%

Neman or Shakhter Soligorsk

71%

Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk

67%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+

13%

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals

66%

Neman 2+ goals

30%

Neman 3+ goals

10%

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals

69%

Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals

33%

Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)

47%

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 127 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.30 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.52 + Neman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Neman scores more

33%

level

29%

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more

38%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

O. Evdokimov← I. Kukharchik

46'

P. Savitskiy← I. Costrov

65'

E. Zubovich

66'

V. Varaksa← L. Gweth

74'

A. Yakimov← G. Alykulov

74'

V. Kosmynin← E. Zubovich

77'

S. Stefanovich← A. Denisyuk

77'

N. Sotnikov← I. Sviridenko

80'

Oleg Evdokimov

87'

Uladzislau Kasmynin

90+1'

A. Chakur← A. Garost

Statistics

NemanShakhter

Discipline

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0