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Shakhter Soligorsk vs FC Isloch Minsk R. — Premier League 2018

Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
6/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Stadyen Budaŭnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk50%
×Draw25%
FC Isloch Minsk R.25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.59
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.06

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 50% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 127 away

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.81
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.31

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
0.82
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.38

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par
FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw
75%
Shakhter Soligorsk or FC Isloch Minsk R.
75%
Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.
50%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
26%
FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
80%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
47%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
21%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
65%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
29%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
66%
FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.82 · 103 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.81 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.31 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
50%
level
25%
FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
25%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shakhter Soligorsk 3–0 FC Isloch Minsk R.

Shakhter Soligorsk beat FC Isloch Minsk R. 3-0 in Premier League on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Budaŭnik in Soligorsk.