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FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Shakhter Soligorsk — Premier League 2018

FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
3/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Stadion FK Minsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

FC Isloch Minsk R.34%
×Draw28%
Shakhter Soligorsk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 104 away

creates per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.40
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.52

allows per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.96
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88

finishing

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par
Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Isloch Minsk R. ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Isloch Minsk R. or draw
61%
FC Isloch Minsk R. or Shakhter Soligorsk
72%
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
66%

Winning margin

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
14%
Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
68%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
32%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
11%
Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
71%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
35%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
47%
Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Isloch Minsk R. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.96 · 124 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.40 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.52 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
34%
level
28%
Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
39%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Shakhter Soligorsk

FC Isloch Minsk R. and Shakhter Soligorsk drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Minsk in Minsk.