Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shakhter Karagandy vs Ordabasy — Premier League 2019

Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
3/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy35%
×Draw28%
Ordabasy38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Karagandy
1.16
Ordabasy
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 93 away

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy
1.14
Ordabasy
1.33

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy
1.11
Ordabasy
1.18

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par
Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Ordabasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw
62%
Shakhter Karagandy or Ordabasy
72%
Draw or Ordabasy
65%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+
14%
Ordabasy wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals
69%
Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals
32%
Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals
11%
Ordabasy 1+ goals
70%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
34%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)
48%
Ordabasy (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.14 + Ordabasy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ordabasy attack 1.33 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more
35%
level
28%
Ordabasy scores more
38%

Ordabasy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shakhter Karagandy 1–4 Ordabasy

Ordabasy beat Shakhter Karagandy 4-1 in Premier League on March 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter in Karaganda.