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Ordabasy vs Shakhter Karagandy — Premier League 2019

Ordabasy
Ordabasy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
10/14/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ordabasy56%
×Draw24%
Shakhter Karagandy20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ordabasy
1.74
Shakhter Karagandy
0.93

Ordabasy creates 87% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ordabasy
1.73
Shakhter Karagandy
0.96

allows per match

Ordabasy
0.90
Shakhter Karagandy
1.75

finishing

Ordabasy+0.00on par
Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordabasy ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ordabasy or draw
80%
Ordabasy or Shakhter Karagandy
76%
Draw or Shakhter Karagandy
44%

Winning margin

Ordabasy wins by 2+
32%
Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ordabasy 1+ goals
82%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
52%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
25%
Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals
61%
Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals
24%
Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ordabasy (draw refunded)
74%
Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordabasy at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 97 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordabasy attack 1.73 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.74

Shakhter Karagandy attack 0.96 + Ordabasy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ordabasy scores more
56%
level
24%
Shakhter Karagandy scores more
20%

Ordabasy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ordabasy 1–0 Shakhter Karagandy

Ordabasy beat Shakhter Karagandy 1-0 in Premier League on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov in Shymkent.