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Shakhter Karagandy vs Ordabasy — Cup 2019

Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
FT
3 – 2
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
8/14/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 5Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy44%
×Draw22%
Ordabasy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Karagandy
1.98
Ordabasy
1.73

Shakhter Karagandy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy
3.09
Ordabasy
1.65

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy
1.82
Ordabasy
0.88

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par
Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Ordabasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw
66%
Shakhter Karagandy or Ordabasy
78%
Draw or Ordabasy
56%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+
25%
Ordabasy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals
86%
Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals
59%
Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals
31%
Ordabasy 1+ goals
82%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
52%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)
56%
Ordabasy (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 3.09 + Ordabasy defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ordabasy attack 1.65 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more
44%
level
22%
Ordabasy scores more
34%

Shakhter Karagandy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Shakhter Karagandy 3–2 Ordabasy

Shakhter Karagandy beat Ordabasy 3-2 in Cup on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter in Karaganda.