Shakhter Karagandy 2–0 Okzhetpes: Result & Stats

Shakhter Karagandy

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Okzhetpes

T. Chogadze 90+2'

I. Sviridov 66'

8/19/2023

Premier League · Round 20Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy44%

×Draw26%

Okzhetpes29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter KaragandyExpected goals in this matchOkzhetpes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.13

Shakhter Karagandy

1.45

Okzhetpes

1.13

Shakhter Karagandy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 59 away

1.14

creates per match

1.14

1.11

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.14

Okzhetpes

1.14

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.11

Okzhetpes

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Okzhetpes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw

71%

Shakhter Karagandy or Okzhetpes

74%

Draw or Okzhetpes

56%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

22%

Okzhetpes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

77%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

42%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

18%

Okzhetpes 1+ goals

68%

Okzhetpes 2+ goals

31%

Okzhetpes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

60%

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Okzhetpes away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.14 + Okzhetpes defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.45

Okzhetpes attack 1.14 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

44%

level

26%

Okzhetpes scores more

29%

Shakhter Karagandy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

T. Chogadze

46'

R. Murtazayev← M. Galkin

55'

S. Zhumakhanov← D. Zhumat

61'

A. Tattybaev← A. Nazymkhanov

62'

Z. Moldakaraev

66'

S. Abzalov← R. Bolov

66'

I. Sviridov

69'

E. Alishauskas

74'

Đ. Ćosić← E. Ališauskas

79'

M. Tolebek← Z. Moldakaraev

79'

S. Shamshi← M. Kalmyrza

90+4'

S. Zhumakhanov

90+2'

T. Chogadze

Shakhter4-3-3

Okzhetpes

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: I. Soloshenko

46'▲R. Murtazayev←▼M. Galkin

61'▲A. Tattybaev←▼A. Nazymkhanov

74'▲Đ. Ćosić←▼E. Ališauskas

Shakhter Karagandy substitutes

MurtazayevTattybaevĆosićAbdullaAltynkhanZakharenkoTutkyshevFliukTiuliubayKarpikovTsuprikovKashken

55'▲S. Zhumakhanov←▼D. Zhumat

66'▲S. Abzalov←▼R. Bolov

79'▲M. Tolebek←▼Z. Moldakaraev

79'▲S. Shamshi←▼M. Kalmyrza

Okzhetpes substitutes

ZhumakhanovAbzalovTolebekShamshiBattalovDovgalAmangeldyRyzhukGubarevIdrisovSarsenovGrab