Okzhetpes 1–1 Shakhter Karagandy: Result & Stats

Okzhetpes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhter Karagandy

I. Brikner 90'

0 R. Cañas 90+10' (pen)

4/23/2023

Premier League · Round 7Astana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Okzhetpes46%

×Draw26%

Shakhter Karagandy29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OkzhetpesExpected goals in this matchShakhter Karagandy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.14

Okzhetpes

1.52

Shakhter Karagandy

1.14

Okzhetpes creates 33% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 75 away

1.29

creates per match

0.96

1.32

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Okzhetpes

1.29

Shakhter Karagandy

0.96

allows per match

Okzhetpes

1.32

Shakhter Karagandy

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okzhetpes ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Okzhetpes or draw

71%

Okzhetpes or Shakhter Karagandy

74%

Draw or Shakhter Karagandy

54%

Winning margin

Okzhetpes wins by 2+

23%

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Okzhetpes 1+ goals

78%

Okzhetpes 2+ goals

45%

Okzhetpes 3+ goals

20%

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

68%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

32%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Okzhetpes (draw refunded)

62%

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okzhetpes at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okzhetpes attack 1.29 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shakhter Karagandy attack 0.96 + Okzhetpes defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Okzhetpes scores more

46%

level

26%

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

29%

Okzhetpes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Okzhetpes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Abylaikhan Nazymkhanov

37'

Ruslan Bolov

45+1'

Shokan Abzalov

59'

Z. Moldakaraev← S. Abzalov

59'

V. Gunchenko← A. Dzhigero

62'

M. Galkin← E. Ališauskas

62'

S. Fliuk← I. Sviridov

66'

S. Sarsenov← R. Bolov

75'

Dmytro Ryzhuk

76'

V. Dmitrenko← Y. Pertsukh

76'

R. Tutkyshev← A. Nazymkhanov

81'

Temur Chogadze

82'

Zhasulan Moldakarayev

82'

S. Zhumakhanov← S. Dimitrov

84'

A. Abdulla← T. Chogadze

85'

90'

90'

90+10'

Okzhetpes4-2-3-1

Shakhter3-5-2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Popkov

59'▲Z. Moldakaraev←▼S. Abzalov

59'▲V. Gunchenko←▼A. Dzhigero

66'▲S. Sarsenov←▼R. Bolov

82'▲S. Zhumakhanov←▼S. Dimitrov

Okzhetpes substitutes

MoldakaraevGunchenkoSarsenovZhumakhanovBattalovDovgalIdrisovGrabAmangeldyTolebekSovet

Manager: I. Soloshenko

62'▲M. Galkin←▼E. Ališauskas

62'▲S. Fliuk←▼I. Sviridov

76'▲V. Dmitrenko←▼Y. Pertsukh

76'▲R. Tutkyshev←▼A. Nazymkhanov

84'▲A. Abdulla←▼T. Chogadze

Shakhter Karagandy substitutes

GalkinFliukDmitrenkoTutkyshevAbdullaAltynkhanTsuprikovTiuliubayDadayev

Match Recap: Okzhetpes vs Shakhter Karagandy

Okzhetpes and Shakhter Karagandy drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 23, 2023.

Goals: I. Brikner (90'), 0 R. Cañas (90+10' pen).

The match was played at Astana Arena in Nur-Sultan.

Okzhetpes vs Shakhter Karagandy — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Okzhetpes vs Shakhter Karagandy