Shakhter Karagandy 1–0 Kyzyl-Zhar: Result & Stats

Shakhter Karagandy

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kyzyl-Zhar

5/7/2023

Premier League · Round 8Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy41%

×Draw29%

Kyzyl-Zhar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter KaragandyExpected goals in this matchKyzyl-Zhar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.96

Shakhter Karagandy

1.17

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.96

Shakhter Karagandy creates 22% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 79 away

1.14

creates per match

0.81

1.10

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.14

Kyzyl-Zhar

0.81

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.10

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Kyzyl-Zhar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw

70%

Shakhter Karagandy or Kyzyl-Zhar

71%

Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar

59%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

17%

Kyzyl-Zhar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

69%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

33%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

11%

Kyzyl-Zhar 1+ goals

62%

Kyzyl-Zhar 2+ goals

25%

Kyzyl-Zhar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

58%

Kyzyl-Zhar (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.14 + Kyzyl-Zhar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kyzyl-Zhar attack 0.81 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

41%

level

29%

Kyzyl-Zhar scores more

30%

Shakhter Karagandy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff