Kyzyl-Zhar 2–0 Shakhter Karagandy: Result & Stats

Kyzyl-Zhar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhter Karagandy

6/29/2024

Premier League · Round 13Stadion Karasay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Kyzyl-Zhar49%

×Draw26%

Shakhter Karagandy25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyzyl-ZharExpected goals in this matchShakhter Karagandy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.02

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.54

Shakhter Karagandy

1.02

Kyzyl-Zhar creates 51% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 75 away

1.33

creates per match

0.96

1.09

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.33

Shakhter Karagandy

0.96

allows per match

Kyzyl-Zhar

1.09

Shakhter Karagandy

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyzyl-Zhar+0.00on par

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyzyl-Zhar ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kyzyl-Zhar or draw

75%

Kyzyl-Zhar or Shakhter Karagandy

74%

Draw or Shakhter Karagandy

51%

Winning margin

Kyzyl-Zhar wins by 2+

25%

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kyzyl-Zhar 1+ goals

79%

Kyzyl-Zhar 2+ goals

45%

Kyzyl-Zhar 3+ goals

20%

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

64%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

27%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kyzyl-Zhar (draw refunded)

66%

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyzyl-Zhar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyzyl-Zhar attack 1.33 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shakhter Karagandy attack 0.96 + Kyzyl-Zhar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kyzyl-Zhar scores more

49%

level

26%

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

25%

Kyzyl-Zhar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kyzyl-Zhar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff