Shakhter Karagandy 0–2 Kairat Almaty

Shakhter Karagandy

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kairat Almaty

10/23/2022

Premier League · Round 24Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy31%

×Draw27%

Kairat Almaty42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter KaragandyExpected goals in this matchKairat Almaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.33

Shakhter Karagandy

1.10

Kairat Almaty

1.33

Kairat Almaty creates 21% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 95 away

1.14

creates per match

1.54

1.11

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.14

Kairat Almaty

1.54

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy

1.11

Kairat Almaty

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Kairat Almaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw

58%

Shakhter Karagandy or Kairat Almaty

73%

Draw or Kairat Almaty

69%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

12%

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

67%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

30%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

10%

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

74%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

38%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

42%

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.14 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kairat Almaty attack 1.54 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

31%

level

27%

Kairat Almaty scores more

42%

Kairat Almaty at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff